Several studies found a correlation between a person’s trust in their feelings and predictions. A person that predicts something is more accurate if they trust themselves. This seems to be more than a matter of confidence.
It seems that belief in one’s self can make it easier to think about subjects that they understand.
When you know a lot on a subject confidence in yourself can help you think clearer. In this way you can better guess future outcomes like for example: the 2008 US Democratic presidential nomination, the stock market, the winner of American Idol and even the weather.
However, the effect occurs only among individuals who possess sufficient background knowledge about the prediction domain. It dissipates when the prediction criterion becomes inherently unpredictable.
“Feeling the Future: The Emotional Oracle Effect”, Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee, and Andrew T. Stephen; Journal of Consumer Research, Inc.